Pirate The World - Online Adventure Game

just got 3 storms in 50 moves.... and i sure as hell didn't land on 20 islands

test number 2..

10 islands
2 storms
2 moves gained


20;1 chances eh???

seems a lot closer to 5;1

7 islands
another storm

what's up with everyone complaining about storms?

i don't think it's any worse than pre-re-launch... then again i never took notes on how often i got them.

in order to be happy you guys need to think differently... think
"storms are my friend"
and
"ahh, what a great day, i KNOW i'm gonna break my old record in storms found today, and then i'm gonna brag about it in the forums"

OR

"ahhh, sweet, a storm, i have played long enough for today, if it hadn't been for the storms i would have stayed here forever and neglected real life"

positive thoughts people...

and besides, more storms for you means more storms for everyone, meaning they will run out of moves before they find you, if you are lucky.

don't paint storms as the devil, they could very well be angels in disguise.
how's that for optimism?

I seem to get more storms or "You found exactly jack squat you idiot" than anything else.

Time to pitch the priest overboard AGAIN!

awww.... have a fish

cheer up when you find "jack ****" don't say "damn, i found nothing", say "YAAAY! not a storm"

A test sample of such a small amount is almost meaningless. If I hit 16 found moves, nothing, 62 gold, nothing, 12 moves, nothing, nothing, 37 gold, nothing, fame reset then I could say that there is a 20% chance of found moves, 20% chance to find gold, 10% to find a reset and 50% nothing.

To get any kind of relevant sample, you need to be looking in the 100's or 1000's. Husk was telling me how many storms he hit, so i went to the database to check it out and I found this for statistics:

date storms islands %
20-Mar 48 1033 0.046466602
21-Mar 31 706 0.043909348
22-Mar 51 1257 0.040572792
23-Mar 41 790 0.051898734
24-Mar 32 753 0.04249668
25-Mar 40 894 0.044742729
26-Mar 27 483 0.055900621

as you can see, only 2 of the 7 days did he have MORE than 5% storms while on average, for every 100 islands searched, he had 3 more moves than the median. The problem was that his breakdown is 163 reefs, 5995 islands, 163 lagoons, 1221 oceans and 2320 towns, so 40% of his moves were non-islands. He found 8415 moves while losing 2690 moves searching 5995 islands, which means he ultimately gained 5725 moves after searching 5995 islands.

Served.

well thanks for that info, my next 600 moves i'll keep track.

I found storms today, I also found free moves. Sometimes it seems like there is an excess of one of the two but the variance seems normal to me. I find resets when I do not need them. Sometimes 10 in just a few minutes. Other times there is not a reset to be found when my fame is high. I have searched for 2 hours one time for a reset. But that is normal. If I found one every 100 moves then that would be suspect.

the number of islands needs to be greater than or equal to 30 for it to be statistically accepted...

Are you referring to a sample? 30 might work if you are flipping a coin, but when you are testing somethign that is running a variable from 1-100 you need to have a couple hundred to even begin to come close to seeing if it is working or not, and the greater the sample you have, the more accurate your information is. The margin of error from a sample of 30 islands would be at least +/- 10% if not greater.

there maybe a running variable from 1-100 but as is seen.. there are 5 options... storm, find gold, fame reset, nothing, find moves... the amount means nothing at this stage.. and actually, the number does not need to be 30 if the distribution can be assumed to be normal.. and as should be, this should be a normal distribution... however the smaller the sample to more bias you are going to find.. which is why all sample sizes are combined to form your population sample...

In looking at your data for the last 14 days, you hit 2652 islands and had 132 storms. 132 * 20 = 2640, you are borderline 5%.

look at todays data so far...

246 islands.. 15 storms..

16.4 islands per storm.. ill keep this a running update throughout to see how it pans out...


also ill note this part is qualitative not quantitative so you may not accept it.. but there is almost NEVER and i mean almost NEVER a storm alone.. it always seems to be in groups of at least 2.. sometimes more.. and then a LONG stretch of none.. which seems like an error in the number generator or the way its done or something.. but i dont know what can be done about that, because there is nothing truly random in a computer since computers are only as smart as we tell them to be, and no human is truly random



*edit*

303 islands.. 20 storms... 15.15 islands per storm


381 islands.. 25 storms... 15.24 islands per storm


yay really well there... as normal for low 200's in moves tho...
519 islands.. 30 storms... 17.3 islands per storm


569 islands.. 35 storms... 16.26 islands per storm



now since its late, im almost out of moves, and need to get some sleep and a reset, ill wrap this up...

through 569 moves i had 35 storms, 16.26 islands per storm.. at 20 islands per storm i would have had only b/w 28 and 29 storms.. yes i know the number isnt exact, but thats me down an extra 50 moves.. say the average person farmer makes 1200 moves per day.. and say 1100 of those are islands (which would be a lot)... they would be down about 100 moves that they should still have left.. so instead of being at 0, theyd be at 100.. which yes, i understand this is one sample.. but as i see them compiling, it seems that the ones shown are getting more than 5% storms.. i dont doubt at all that the number is set at five, but i think it may be coming out more often than 5% of the time...


all im trying to do is get out concrete facts.. quantintative facts.. so everyone, players and administrators, can decide what needs to be done and work it out.. bcp n capt you guys are doing a great job with the game, youve done many great things for it, dont get me wrong.. but its human nature to pick at the things that go wrong.. and we all want this game to be perfect, so thats just why we're workin for this...