3J wrote:
test number 2..
10 islands
2 storms
2 moves gained
20;1 chances eh???
seems a lot closer to 5;1
A test sample of such a small amount is almost meaningless. If I hit 16 found moves, nothing, 62 gold, nothing, 12 moves, nothing, nothing, 37 gold, nothing, fame reset then I could say that there is a 20% chance of found moves, 20% chance to find gold, 10% to find a reset and 50% nothing.
To get any kind of relevant sample, you need to be looking in the 100's or 1000's. Husk was telling me how many storms he hit, so i went to the database to check it out and I found this for statistics:
date storms islands %
20-Mar 48 1033 0.046466602
21-Mar 31 706 0.043909348
22-Mar 51 1257 0.040572792
23-Mar 41 790 0.051898734
24-Mar 32 753 0.04249668
25-Mar 40 894 0.044742729
26-Mar 27 483 0.055900621
as you can see, only 2 of the 7 days did he have MORE than 5% storms while on average, for every 100 islands searched, he had 3 more moves than the median. The problem was that his breakdown is 163 reefs, 5995 islands, 163 lagoons, 1221 oceans and 2320 towns, so 40% of his moves were non-islands. He found 8415 moves while losing 2690 moves searching 5995 islands, which means he ultimately gained 5725 moves after searching 5995 islands.